Albania has entered the year 2025 facing serious demographic challenges, marked by accelerated population aging and deepening emigration. According to the latest official data from INSTAT as of January 1, 2025, the median age of the population has risen by 0.8 years in just 12 months, reaching 44.3 years—just slightly below the EU median age of 44.7.
At the same time, net migration (departures minus arrivals) worsened significantly, reaching -28,800 people in 2024, more than double the level of 2023. This accelerating exodus, concentrated among youth and young families, has further hollowed out the country's working-age population and intensified the aging process.
A Country on the Verge of Demographic Collapse
The total resident population now stands at 2.36 million, reflecting a 1.8% decline since the 2023 Census. Population declined in 11 of the country’s 12 counties, with Shkodër experiencing the steepest drop, while Tirana remains the only area with population growth.
If current trends in birth rates and migration persist, Albania is projected to fall below 2 million inhabitants before 2035—a demographic threshold that would significantly undermine its economic and social stability.
This population loss is not only quantitative but also structural. The country has entered a long-term cycle of very low fertility, with just 1.3 births per woman, far below the replacement rate of 2.1. As a result, every new generation is about 40% smaller than the one retiring.
Economic and Social Impacts Intensify
Albania is now one of the oldest countries in the Balkans and Europe. The elderly dependency ratio—the number of people aged 65+ per 100 working-age individuals—has increased by 2.2 percentage points between 2023 and 2025. Conversely, the youth dependency ratio has slightly declined from 23.9% to 23.8%, reflecting the falling number of children due to low birth rates.
The consequences are already visible:
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Fewer young people are entering the labor market.
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More elderly individuals are retiring.
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Schools in rural areas face closure due to a lack of students.
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Public administration and the labor force are increasingly short of human capital.
This trend places enormous pressure on public finances, pension systems, and healthcare services, especially since Albania’s public spending per capita is only 34% of the EU average.
Emigration of the Educated: A Brain Drain
The concentration of emigration among the young and educated is a direct blow to Albania’s economic potential. The country is losing its most productive citizens—those with education, foreign language skills, and mobility—just as it needs them most.
Meanwhile, life expectancy, which stands at 80.9 years for women and 75.3 for men, increases the fiscal burden on pensions and healthcare.
Economic Growth Must Accelerate
To offset the economic consequences of rapid aging, Albania needs to sustain annual growth above 5%, according to international institutions like the IMF. However, over the past decade (2015–2024), growth has averaged just 3.5% per year.
The economy remains dominated by low-productivity sectors such as agriculture, construction, seasonal tourism, and textile processing. Without structural transformation, it will be difficult to narrow the development gap with the EU or to sustain current welfare systems.
Each year, the elderly dependency ratio increases by 1 percentage point, and Albania’s pension scheme already requires additional funding equal to 0.2% of GDP annually.
What Needs to Be Done?
Experts, including demographer Ilir Gëdeshi, argue that urgent policy intervention is needed to reverse these trends. This includes:
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Reducing emigration, particularly of young people.
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Incentivizing childbirth, possibly through tax breaks, child allowances, and family support services.
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Modernizing the economy through digitization, automation, and investment in agro-processing and R&D.
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Creating favorable conditions for the return of the diaspora.
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Expanding the tax base and attracting skilled labor.
Failure to act now could double the pension system deficit within a decade and further weaken Albania’s long-term growth potential.
A Tipping Point
As of early 2025, Albania has 57 dependents (children and retirees) for every 100 people of working age, and this figure is rising. Projections indicate that the median age could exceed 47 years by 2035, placing Albania in the ranks of the world’s oldest countries.
Without decisive action to boost fertility, retain youth, and reform key economic sectors, Albania risks entering a demographic and economic spiral that could become irreversible.
In Summary
Albania enters 2025 as an aging, shrinking nation—with a weaker labor force, heavier fiscal burdens, and declining long-term potential. The urgency of structural reforms and demographic resilience strategies has never been greater.