On March 18, Kosovo, Albania, and Croatia signed a declaration aimed at enhancing cooperation in security and defense. The initiative is open to allies and partners of the European Union and NATO who wish to contribute to stability, security, and resilience in Southeast Europe, according to the Croatian government.
The initiative, however, does not seek to establish a military alliance. "Such an alliance—apart from NATO membership—is unnecessary," stated the Croatian government in a written response to Radio Free Europe. While Albania and Croatia are NATO members, Kosovo is not.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić reacted by claiming that the agreement has initiated an arms race in the region and violates the 1996 subregional agreement, which regulates arms quotas. That agreement was signed by Bosnia and Herzegovina’s two entities—the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Republika Srpska—as well as Croatia and the former Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, which consisted of Serbia and Montenegro. However, the Croatian government emphasized that neither Albania nor Kosovo were parties to that agreement, making any connection to the new declaration irrelevant.
Serbian authorities have not officially explained why they perceive the initiative as a threat. Daniel Serwer, a professor at Johns Hopkins University, argues that Belgrade is aware that NATO allies cannot act unilaterally against Serbia. He further emphasized that the three countries involved pose no threat to Serbia, describing the initiative as a move that contributes to regional stability rather than destabilization.
NATO, in response, classified the agreement as a tripartite initiative, clarifying that it played no role in its consultation process.
Why is Belgrade Opposed?
Vuk Vuksanović, a researcher at the Belgrade-based Center for Security Policy, suggests that Serbian officials are using the declaration as a distraction from domestic issues, including ongoing protests in Serbia. The demonstrations, led by students, demand accountability for the deaths of 16 people in a railway station collapse in Novi Sad last November.
Vuksanović also notes that Croatia’s involvement is particularly provocative for Serbia, more so than Albania’s, given Vučić's past cooperative relationship with Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama. However, Serbian Defense Minister Bratislav Gašić dismissed the agreement as a "provocative initiative that contradicts regional security efforts." He reiterated Serbia’s stance that Kosovo remains an autonomous province within Serbia, despite being recognized as an independent state by Albania, Croatia, and other countries.
According to Gašić, Albania and Croatia have long sought to integrate Kosovo into NATO "through the backdoor" by assisting in the development of Kosovo’s security forces—an effort Serbia deems illegitimate.
Legal Standing of the Declaration
Vuksanović clarifies that the agreement is not a legally binding interstate treaty but rather a memorandum of understanding among two NATO members and a third party, Kosovo. He sees Croatia’s participation as a strategic move to gain regional influence.
Identifying Security Threats
The Croatian government maintains that the declaration seeks to enhance defense cooperation among the three countries, particularly in addressing hybrid and cyber threats that aim to destabilize the region. While the declaration does not specify the source of these threats, its objectives align with broader NATO efforts to counteract foreign influence.
Serbia's Role in Regional Stability
Despite opposing the agreement, Serbian officials insist that Belgrade remains committed to regional peace and stability. The Serbian Ministry of Defense has pledged to continue cooperating with NATO member states in pursuit of this goal.
However, Professor Serwer challenges Serbia’s portrayal as a stabilizing force. He points to Serbia’s ongoing military buildup, its refusal to implement agreements with Kosovo, and its support for secessionist policies in Bosnia’s Republika Srpska as evidence to the contrary. He also highlights Serbia’s continued ties with Russia, which, in his view, encourage pro-Russian sentiment in both Serbia and Montenegro.
"None of this contributes to peace and stability," Serwer concludes.